On Friday morning, David Korten offered a very brief and very effective overview of the “perfect economic storm” scenario, whereby peak oil, climate change and the collapse of the US dollar provide the conditions for a fundamental global economic transformation.
There are many places where this is being talked about (Google for more), but I as I thought about this scenario, I gave some thought to what this might mean for First Nations economies.
It’s clear to me that any future economic development or endeavours based on oil – in other words, strongly dependant on long range distribution systems – is digging oneself into a hole. Many First Nations find themselves in this exact trap: harvesting resources (trees and fish) which need to be transported to distant markets, either in the US, or dependant on the US economy.
As the price of oil continues to increase, these endeavours will become more and more expensive and less able to to be profitable. My great concern is that the response to this crises will be to harvest MORE resources in order to support struggling industries.
Obviously, smarter and more sustainable resource harvesting practices are better, including providing community quotas of trees or fish. A quota system encourages value added and sustainable practices that conserve the resource.
But for me, the implications of the perfect economic storm are bigger for First Nations, and I believe First Nations can be key players in a post-storm future.
First Nations are land owners – whether through the assertion of Aboriginal title, or through treaties. Interestingly, they are the only form of government in Canada that local and land based. By and large in our system, municipalities do not have community access to land and resources, and provincial governments are not local (expect perhaps in PEI). Sop First Nations represent a form of governance that is perfectly suited to weathering the perfect storm.
Also, First Nations are scattered all over the place, and in a different world, where supply lines are shorter and reliance on local resources is paramount, First Nations become important hubs for regional population centres. First Nations can be well set to provide food (farming, wild crafting and wild meat), energy (through micro hydro, wind and solar), resources (water, trees and other r building materials) all provided in a long term sustainable way to their own citizens and local non-Aboriginal communities. These sustainable and living local economies will possibly be enhanced when global climate change increases the temperatures and therefore the growing seasons in more northern regions.
The dependence on oil will decrease as the supply lines shorten and the reliance on US markets will disappear as forests are maintained for a lower cut (material used locally) and more diverse uses (more food production from forests and sustenance of water resources). I think there is great promise in First Nations if these sustainable practices are put in place alongside treaties and title and rights cases and I think it behooves local non-Aboriginal communities to partner and support these efforts because it is the fastest way for local regions to gain access to nearby resources.
I’m hoping to further this conversation along with my colleagues in Aboriginal economic development and possibly host a scenario planning workshop were we can actually think through some ideas and strategies for creating these futures. What excites me is that these strategies would have wide applicability across many First Nations and that in implementing, experimenting and learning, communities benefit and create centres of excellence.
Feel free to drop me a note if this notion appeals to you.